One Week to Go Roster Update (2024)

Good morning, Viva El Birdos!

Well… I lied to you. I promised I would be back in the saddle for a significant article this week. Even gave you a preview of what I wanted to write about. The plan was to return to my Master Plan series and evaluate it in light of what actually happened this offseason.

As many of you know, I am trying to finalize a dissertation. The good news for me is that I got my edits back sooner than expected. That means, instead of waiting for them and writing about baseball, I have the chance to get those done and accelerate the process a little.

That’s bad news for those of you who wanted that Master Plan Revisited piece. But I won’t leave you high and dry.

Opening Day is coming. We are a week away from the Cardinals’ first plate appearance to open the season. The roster is starting to shake out a little. It’s a good time to do an updated roster projection based on what we know so far.

Who is in and who is out as of Tuesday, March 19?

Here’s my roster:

Let’s break it down:

1. Why not Victor Scott?

I know that’s the big question that folks will ask. Why in the world do I have Michael Siani on the roster ahead of Victor Scott? There’s a very easy answer to that question.

It’s because I hate Victor Scott.

Obviously.

No, it’s the exact opposite. I like Scott. A lot. My opinion of him has only risen this Spring in a very small sample size. His contact skills have translated well to a Spring Training environment. He’s been able to maintain the kind of walk rate (11.4% as of Tuesday morning) that I want to see from him. He’s keeping strikeout totals under control.

These are the kinds of skills that he needs to have to be a productive Major League Player.

What we have not seen from Victor Scott is anything remotely resembling power. He has one speed-induced triple, with no doubles and no homers. Scott does not need to be a masher. Not even remotely. And he will turn some of his hard-hit singles into doubles from speed alone.

However, all batters need some cushion in their offensive profile; something to keep their production propped up during those stretches when singles aren’t falling in. This is especially true of high BABIP players with relatively low walk totals.

I can give you an example with Tommy Edman. Edman is a contact-oriented speedster with a below average walk rate. Scott is faster and probably makes more consistent contact but we can’t be sure of that yet. Edman is not a power hitter but he can force 11-13 pitches over the wall every season.

11 homers is not a lot of power. It’s not even average power. It is enough to buoy his ISO and keep him from being 100% reliant on his ability to generate contact.

Even with his defensive versatility, speed, and contact ability, Tommy Edman might not be an MLB regular if it weren’t for his ability to provide just enough power to keep him in the lineup.

ZiPS shows us what happens when a hitter with that kind of profile reaches the Majors, sees his BABIP devolve back to MLB standards (.300), doesn’t walk a ton, and can’t generate an ISO above .120. The computers project Scott to have a 78 wRC+ in 2024.

They love his defense. They’re ecstatic about his speed. ZiPS thinks he would have a +8.6 fWAR DEF and 46 stolen bases. That’s impressive! His overall value isn’t bad either over 600 PAs – 1.7 fWAR. You want more from a starting outfielder, but as a player who hasn’t seen PAs above AA, that’s not a bad projection at all. That’s why we’re all so excited about him!

But that wRC+ reveals the truth that so many people don’t want to hear: VS2 still has work to do at the plate.

I like Victor Scott and I think he has a bright future in the majors. And that’s why I want him to go down to Memphis and stay there for at least half the season to try to continue to develop his approach at the plate. If he makes the same progress he made last year in AAA this year, then he’ll have that much larger of a hitting toolbox to fall back on when he starts to face actual MLB pitchers and not gearing up for the season MLB pitchers.

Give Scott the time that he needs to get his bat ready for the majors. Consider how much that did for Ivan Herrera last year. Consider the changes that we saw in Winn’s game from AA to his callup last season. Consider the struggles Walker – a much more talented hitter than Scott – had his first few months in the majors.

AAA matters. Especially for hitters like Scott.

2. What to do with Gray?

We already know that Sonny Gray will not make the start on Opening Day. As far as I can tell, there is no definitive answer on whether or not the club will IL him. What to do with him, then?

My answer is to keep him on the roster and help him work his way back from the rotation.

The Cardinals were already considering using a 6^th starter because of their tight early season schedule. In some ways, that approach solve the Gray problem, who can slide into an “opener” role with Matthew Liberatore to continue progressing toward 100 pitch outings.

Here’s how it would work. The Cardinals have 8 straight games to open the season, facing the Dodgers and the Padres in California before coming home to face the Marlins at Busch. Gray is already on the mound making the equivalent of “rehab” starts this Spring. Just let him keep doing those on the roster instead of in extended Spring Training!

Here is one way to run the schedule:

Game 1: Mikolas
Game 2: Gibson
Game 3: Gray/Liberatore
Game 4: Lynn
Game 5: Matz
Game 6: Thompson
Game 7: Mikolas
Game 8: Gray/Liberatore (home opener)

The Cards could have Gray start the game as an “opener” and plan for him to throw 2-3 innings against the Dodgers with Liberatore supporting him for another 2-4 innings. What game would that be? I don’t know the throwing schedule for Gray, so this might have to be adjusted for his timing. Still, if Gray’s first “opener” start comes in game 3 or earlier, the Cardinals can then roll him back around on regular rest for a second “opener” start for the Home Opener.

Based on what I’ve seen, I would think that by April 4, game 8, Gray should be positioned for 4-5 innings. Or 80 pitches. That’s not that much different than an early season pitch count anyway.

Thompson would be available for a relief role in the first few games of the season and could make a full start in the Padres series if needed. If they want to keep everyone on schedule, then just flop Liberatore with Thompson and bump everyone except Gray back up a game. Liberatore stays as depth in the pen.

There are a lot of different ways to arrange this. The point is that I don’t think Gray needs to go on the IL. Let him make his rehab starts in the majors with support with Thompson and Liberatore around to support him.

3. O’Brien or Fernandez?

With Gray staying on my active roster, that means there is just one final bullpen spot to consider. Middleton heads to the IL. Who takes his spot?

The right answer is probably Ryan Fernandez. Fernandez was a Rule 5 pick and if the Cardinals don’t put him on the roster, then they have to ship him back to Boston or, perhaps, work out a trade to keep him. That’s probably going to be a motivator for the club. They’ll lose an asset if they just let him walk away. They don’t like doing that.

Frankly, though, I don’t care. The club boxed themselves into a roster corner by bringing in quality veteran relievers on reasonably priced deals. (This is NOT a criticism.) By signing guys to guaranteed contracts, they essentially negated the usefulness of a Rule 5 pick. If they treat Fernandez as another arm on a guaranteed deal – because they’ll lose him if they don’t roster him – then they are left with just 1-2 spots for the necessary bullpen roster churn throughout the season. That churn matters. They need versatility in their bullpen.

To me, this just boils down to an old-fashioned roster competition. If Fernandez is the best arm for one of those spots, then keep him, use him, and see what happens over the course of the season. If someone else is better, then send Fernandez back to Boston (or trade for him), use the better option, and gain some roster flexibility in the process. I like that roster construction better.

Fernandez has been decent this spring. Riley O’Brien has been better. He has a better arm period, better upside, and more experience. I also like what I’ve seen from Robertson. With both of them, and the likelihood of Liberatore landing on the roster for the first few weeks, I’m comfortable letting Fernandez go, promoting O’Brien, and letting Robertson plus several others serve as AAA depth.

I suspect that the Cardinals will use the Middleton injury to keep Fernandez on the roster for now and hope the circ*mstances work out that they can keep him around all season. That’s fine. It’s not my preferred path.

Got a disagreement? Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments.

Have a great Wednesday, Cardinals fans. Baseball is almost here.